casestudynotes

Lagos, Nigeria

Nigeria's largest city, a fast growing NEE megacity offering jobs and education but struggling with informal housing, traffic and waste.

  • Verified
  • Nigeria
  • Library

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Evidence

8 figures, each threaded to its source

Lagos State population at the 1991 census

5,725,116people

2 sources

citypopulation.de

Population Census 1991-11-26 Population Census 2006-03-21 Population Projection 2022-03-21 Lagos State 5,725,116 9,113,605 13,491,800

Lagos population, national estimate for 2019

12.8million people

documents1.worldbank.org

Population counts vary: Most recent estimate by the Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics was 12.8 million (2019)

Lagos population, the state government's own count

26.4million people

documents1.worldbank.org

according to the Lagos Bureau of Statistics, the population has reached 26.4 million

Estimated population of Makoko

200,000people

2 sources

aljazeera.com

At least 200,000 people live here and after more than a century of non-inteference, local officials recently took a keen interest in the slum.

Nollywood films produced each year

2,500films

2 sources

trade.gov

Nollywood, producing around 2,500 films annually is now the second-largest film industry globally by volume.

Lagos share of Nigeria's GDP

26.7percent

2 sources

lagosagric.com

The Lagos Gross Domestic Product [GDP] accounted for 26.7% of Nigeria's total GDP and more than 50% of non-oil GDP.

Share of national cargo through Lagos ports

70percent

2 sources

lagosagric.com

Home to Nigeria’s Chief Ports – Apapa & Tin Can Island [70% of total National cargo freight]

People added to Lagos each day

3,000people a day (nearly)

documents1.worldbank.org

Due to natural growth and migration, Lagos’ population increases daily by nearly 3,000 persons.

Background

Lagos sits on the coast of southwest Nigeria, built around a lagoon and a set of islands linked by bridges. It began as a port and grew into the commercial capital of Nigeria, even though the political capital moved to Abuja in 1991. The city is now one of the largest in Africa, and how large depends on who is counting. Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics put the population at 12.8 million in 2019, while the Lagos Bureau of Statistics, the state government's own agency, reported 26.4 million. Growth has been remarkably fast. Nigeria's 1991 census counted 5,725,116 people in Lagos State, so the city has more than doubled in a generation. People arrive from rural Nigeria and from neighbouring countries because Lagos offers work, schools, universities and the chance of a better life. The city produces around a quarter of Nigeria's GDP and its two main ports handle most of the country's trade. That success sits alongside serious problems, including the informal settlement of Makoko, long traffic jams, piles of uncollected waste and unsafe water supplies.

Causes

Rural to urban migration

People move to Lagos from villages across Nigeria and from nearby countries such as Benin and Niger. Push factors include low farm incomes, few jobs and poor services in the countryside. Pull factors include the hope of paid work, better schools and hospitals, and family already living in the city. Migration adds hundreds of thousands of people every year.

High natural increase

Many migrants are young adults who then start families in the city, so births far outnumber deaths. Nigeria's birth rate remains high while death rates have fallen thanks to vaccines and better healthcare. This natural increase means Lagos would keep growing quickly even if migration stopped tomorrow. Natural growth and migration together add nearly 3,000 people to the city every day.

Economic magnet for Nigeria

Lagos generates about 26.7 percent of Nigeria's GDP and hosts the ports of Apapa and Tin Can Island, which handle around 70 percent of national cargo. Banks, tech startups and the Nollywood film industry are based there. Because so much of the country's economy is concentrated in one city, jobs and investment keep pulling people in.

Effects

Primary

  • The population counted in Lagos State has grown from 5,725,116 at the 1991 census to an estimated 12.8 million in 2019.
  • The built up area has spread outward along the coast and inland, swallowing surrounding villages.
  • Population density has risen sharply, with thousands of people per square kilometre in the most crowded districts.

Secondary

  • Housing supply cannot keep up, so an estimated 200,000 or more people live in the stilt settlement of Makoko alone.
  • Roads built for a much smaller city carry severe congestion, and commuters can spend hours each day in traffic known locally as go-slows.
  • Services such as piped water, sewers and electricity reach only part of the population, so many rely on wells, generators and water vendors.

Social

  • Access to education has improved for many families, with far more schools and universities than rural Nigeria offers.
  • Health clinics and hospitals are concentrated in the city, though the poorest districts are badly underserved.
  • Communities in informal settlements live with insecure tenure and the constant threat of eviction and demolition.

Economic

  • Lagos produces around a quarter of Nigeria's GDP and over half of its non-oil industrial output.
  • Nollywood, based largely in Lagos, releases around 2,500 films a year and employs large numbers of actors, crew and traders.
  • A large informal economy of street selling, repairs and transport gives work to millions but pays little and offers no security.

Environmental

  • Thousands of tonnes of waste are produced daily and much of it ends up in open dumps or the lagoon.
  • The lagoon and coastal waters are polluted by sewage, oil and industrial waste, harming fishing communities.
  • Traffic and diesel generators cause serious air pollution across the city.

Responses

Immediate

  • The Lagos State Waste Management Authority collects refuse and licenses private operators to expand coverage.
  • Floating schools and community mapping projects in Makoko have tried to improve education and give residents a documented claim to their homes.
  • Bus rapid transit lanes were introduced to move commuters past the worst congestion.

Long term

  • The Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has opened new rail lines, including the Blue Line light rail, to cut journey times.
  • The Eko Atlantic development is reclaiming land from the sea for new business and housing districts, though critics say it serves the wealthy.
  • Slum upgrading schemes and the Lagos State Development Plan aim to extend water, sanitation and legal housing rather than simply clearing settlements.
  • Investment in new deep sea port capacity at Lekki aims to relieve pressure on Apapa and spread economic activity eastward.

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